What happens if/when we have 25-marker matches?
Well, the good news is that 25-marker matches allow finer interpretations:
· 24-25/25: You share a common ancestor, probably within a genealogic time frame. (The numbers of generations & dates below are approximate.)
¨ A perfect 25/25: The chances are 90% that your most recent common ancestor is within the past 28 generations, roughly since 1300 AD. It’s 70% that the time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) is within 15 generations >= 1630 AD and 50% the TMRCA is <= 9 gen., >= 1780 AD. Thus, as we will find out when we look at greater numbers of markers, discovering a "perfect" 25/25 match only means that you share an ancestor who lived about 1300 (90% probability) to 1780 (50% probability).
A 24/25 match means even less. 24/25: The 90% probable TMRCA is <=48 gen, >= 800 AD; 70% is <= 30 gen., >= 1260 AD; 50% is <= 21 gen., >= 1480 AD.
Matching 23/25 may not illuminate your genealogical studies at all, as your common ancestor may have preceeded records with surnames. 23/25 or worse: You share a common ancestor, but he may not have lived within a genealogic time frame
Looking at this in terms of generations, instead of years, the match of 23/25: 90% TMRCA is <= 67 gen., >= 330 AD; 70% is <= 46 gen., >= 860; AD; 50% is <= 34 gen., >= 1160 AD.
While a 22/25 match means even less. 22/25: 90% TMRCA is <= 86 gen., >= 140 BC; 70% is <= 61 gen., >= 480 AD; 50% is <= 47 gen., >= 830 AD.
Input from Ralph Taylor and Lalia Wilson
Friday, August 14, 2009
Saturday, August 8, 2009
What Does a 12 Marker Match Mean?
Here are some thoughts from Ralph Taylor on 12-marker Matches:
About 12-marker matches, there isn’t a lot to say. There are only three possibilities:
A perfect 12/12 means you share a common ancestor. But that ancestor may be many centuries in the past. The 90% probability level includes the past 60 generations (dating to as early as 510 AD); the 70% level includes the past 31 generations (as early as 1235 AD; and the 50% level (as likely to be low as high) includes the past 18 generations (as early as 1560 AD).
11/12 is inconclusive. Comparison of more markers is needed to draw any conclusions. If you are the one with only 12 markers tested, you should upgrade to more markers.
10/12 or worse excludes sharing a common ancestor within several thousands of years.
That’s cold, but true. 12 markers are considered sufficient to exclude sharing of a common ancestor, but not to include it.
Now, Lalia's interpretation... This means quite simply that if you match someone with the same surname 12 for 12, it suggests that you share that surname. However to trace your ancestry, you are going to need to test more markers and match more markers! (About which we will have more information in a future blog.)
If you do not share the same surname, or a variant of the surname, then a 12/12 match means that you likely come from the same general gene pool, such as the British Isles, and means nothing more.
We will have some forthcoming blog posts about higher levels of matches.
Good luck with your own genetic genealogical projects!
Lalia
About 12-marker matches, there isn’t a lot to say. There are only three possibilities:
A perfect 12/12 means you share a common ancestor. But that ancestor may be many centuries in the past. The 90% probability level includes the past 60 generations (dating to as early as 510 AD); the 70% level includes the past 31 generations (as early as 1235 AD; and the 50% level (as likely to be low as high) includes the past 18 generations (as early as 1560 AD).
11/12 is inconclusive. Comparison of more markers is needed to draw any conclusions. If you are the one with only 12 markers tested, you should upgrade to more markers.
10/12 or worse excludes sharing a common ancestor within several thousands of years.
That’s cold, but true. 12 markers are considered sufficient to exclude sharing of a common ancestor, but not to include it.
Now, Lalia's interpretation... This means quite simply that if you match someone with the same surname 12 for 12, it suggests that you share that surname. However to trace your ancestry, you are going to need to test more markers and match more markers! (About which we will have more information in a future blog.)
If you do not share the same surname, or a variant of the surname, then a 12/12 match means that you likely come from the same general gene pool, such as the British Isles, and means nothing more.
We will have some forthcoming blog posts about higher levels of matches.
Good luck with your own genetic genealogical projects!
Lalia
Terminology Used in Genetic Genealogy
Hi,
Here are some terms that Ralph Taylor provides to help you understand your reading of articles and blog posts about genetic genealogy.
MRCA: The most recent common ancestor shared by two or more persons with a DNA match. We are concerned only with the most recent, because preceding ancestors will also be shared.
TMRCA: The probable time to the MRCA, expressed in generations.
Probability level: The cumulative probability, expressed as a percentage, that a MRCA lived within the specified number of generations. Here, we give three probability levels, 90%, 70%, & 50%. 90% means the chances are 9/10 the TMRCA is <= the given number; 50% probability is as likely to give a low TMRCA as a high one.
Genealogic time frame: A time for which it is feasible to specifically identify an ancestor, generally from about 1350 AD to the present.
Generations, length of: This is an estimated average of 25 years, developed from 18th and 19th century America statistics. We use the estimate to convert generations to common dates. Other societies may have had a different generational length -- either longer or shorter.
<=: Means less than or equal to, the maximum generations number for that probability level
>=: As applied to dates, means no earlier than the given date.
Here are some terms that Ralph Taylor provides to help you understand your reading of articles and blog posts about genetic genealogy.
MRCA: The most recent common ancestor shared by two or more persons with a DNA match. We are concerned only with the most recent, because preceding ancestors will also be shared.
TMRCA: The probable time to the MRCA, expressed in generations.
Probability level: The cumulative probability, expressed as a percentage, that a MRCA lived within the specified number of generations. Here, we give three probability levels, 90%, 70%, & 50%. 90% means the chances are 9/10 the TMRCA is <= the given number; 50% probability is as likely to give a low TMRCA as a high one.
Genealogic time frame: A time for which it is feasible to specifically identify an ancestor, generally from about 1350 AD to the present.
Generations, length of: This is an estimated average of 25 years, developed from 18th and 19th century America statistics. We use the estimate to convert generations to common dates. Other societies may have had a different generational length -- either longer or shorter.
<=: Means less than or equal to, the maximum generations number for that probability level
>=: As applied to dates, means no earlier than the given date.
Monday, August 3, 2009
Key Dates in Taylor Genealogy
Hi,
We are going to have several posts authored by project co-administrator Ralph Taylor, with input from project head, Dr. Leigh Taylor, and from me. We start with some basics that impact every Taylor, key dates.
1066 AD: Norman Conquest of England , bringing the word “tailleur” for a maker of clothing into the language. One Taylor line claims descent from an officer in the victorious army.
1350 AD: The approximate time surnames came into general usage. Most Taylor families first used the surname then; before that, it was “Robert, the town tailor”, not “Robert Taylor”. (Similarly with Carpenter, Cooper, Plummer & Smith.)
1607 AD: Founding of Jamestown , Virginia , the first permanent English settlement on the American continent. This event began English Taylor migration to what would become the United States of America .
1700 AD: The beginning of Scots Irish migration to America , bringing Taylor families from Ireland , particularly the Ulster & Armargh provinces. Taylor descendants hail from the Cameron clan.
1709 AD: Beginning of Palatine migration to America . Some Germanic Schneider families anglicized their name to its English equivalent, Taylor .
1763 AD: France ceded most of its North American territory to Great Britain , opening the way for British migration to Canada . We begin to see Taylor spelled as pronounced in various areas of the county: Tayler, Tyler, Tolliver, Taliaferro (Italian), Tailor, Taler, etc.
1788 AD: Britain established its first settlement in New South Wales , Australia . Many of the early settlers were convicts from England .
We are going to have several posts authored by project co-administrator Ralph Taylor, with input from project head, Dr. Leigh Taylor, and from me. We start with some basics that impact every Taylor, key dates.
1066 AD: Norman Conquest of England , bringing the word “tailleur” for a maker of clothing into the language. One Taylor line claims descent from an officer in the victorious army.
1350 AD: The approximate time surnames came into general usage. Most Taylor families first used the surname then; before that, it was “Robert, the town tailor”, not “Robert Taylor”. (Similarly with Carpenter, Cooper, Plummer & Smith.)
1607 AD: Founding of Jamestown , Virginia , the first permanent English settlement on the American continent. This event began English Taylor migration to what would become the United States of America .
1700 AD: The beginning of Scots Irish migration to America , bringing Taylor families from Ireland , particularly the Ulster & Armargh provinces. Taylor descendants hail from the Cameron clan.
1709 AD: Beginning of Palatine migration to America . Some Germanic Schneider families anglicized their name to its English equivalent, Taylor .
1763 AD: France ceded most of its North American territory to Great Britain , opening the way for British migration to Canada . We begin to see Taylor spelled as pronounced in various areas of the county: Tayler, Tyler, Tolliver, Taliaferro (Italian), Tailor, Taler, etc.
1788 AD: Britain established its first settlement in New South Wales , Australia . Many of the early settlers were convicts from England .
Sunday, July 26, 2009
Y-DNA as a research tool for populations
Here is another article, more abstract, yet with implications that impact the Taylor project, as many Taylor lines go back to Great Britain.
http://harvardmagazine.com/2009/07/who-killed-the-men-england
Lalia
http://harvardmagazine.com/2009/07/who-killed-the-men-england
Lalia
Eastman's article on y-DNA as a genealogy tool
Hi,
I'll just put the link here. I don't agree with every word, nor with all the numerous comments, but the majority is good information.
http://blog.eogn.com/eastmans_online_genealogy/2009/07/how-dna-proved-my-family-tree-connection.html
Lalia
I'll just put the link here. I don't agree with every word, nor with all the numerous comments, but the majority is good information.
http://blog.eogn.com/eastmans_online_genealogy/2009/07/how-dna-proved-my-family-tree-connection.html
Lalia
Saturday, July 25, 2009
Taylors in the USA
If you are interested enough in Taylors to be reading this blog, you’ve probably already searched for Taylors in public records. Not an easy task, is it? Then, if you combine the Taylor surname with a common first name, say John or James, you are in real trouble. You can find many of them even in the same counties you know your ancestor of the same name lived…
But here’s proof of how many Taylors are out there. This information was obtained from Ancestory.com’s census records and then corrected, because a number of censuses underreported in some years. Thanks to Ralph Taylor and Josh Taylor, project administrators who did the hard work.
Consider these numbers:
US Federal Census Data for Taylor, 1790-1930
From search on "taylor", exact match, exact spelling at Ancestry.com US federal census indices, with corrections for underreporting in some jurisdictions.
1790 9,710
1800 13,300
1810 17,940
1820 23,600
1830 33,650
1840 58,560
1850 67,430
1860 85,620
1870 133,270
1880 171,360
1890 211,160
1900 248,515
1910 283,066
1920 313,925
1930 341,174
So, how do you find the right Taylor ancestors? Glad you asked that. Y-chromosome DNA is one way to go about locating the right Taylor family. Go to www.familytreedna.com and look for the Taylor surname project. We are now at 277 members and just beginning to fully elucidate the Taylor gene pool.
And, yes, there are other ways to find your correct Taylor ancestors. Go for the paper trail with public and private documents. And, realistically, you need to do both. The combination of biological proof and a paper trail will make definite proof that you are investigating the right ancestors.
Good luck with your genealogy research! Remember to get back to the Taylor surname project when you have updated your Taylor family tree.
Lalia
But here’s proof of how many Taylors are out there. This information was obtained from Ancestory.com’s census records and then corrected, because a number of censuses underreported in some years. Thanks to Ralph Taylor and Josh Taylor, project administrators who did the hard work.
Consider these numbers:
US Federal Census Data for Taylor, 1790-1930
From search on "taylor", exact match, exact spelling at Ancestry.com US federal census indices, with corrections for underreporting in some jurisdictions.
1790 9,710
1800 13,300
1810 17,940
1820 23,600
1830 33,650
1840 58,560
1850 67,430
1860 85,620
1870 133,270
1880 171,360
1890 211,160
1900 248,515
1910 283,066
1920 313,925
1930 341,174
So, how do you find the right Taylor ancestors? Glad you asked that. Y-chromosome DNA is one way to go about locating the right Taylor family. Go to www.familytreedna.com and look for the Taylor surname project. We are now at 277 members and just beginning to fully elucidate the Taylor gene pool.
And, yes, there are other ways to find your correct Taylor ancestors. Go for the paper trail with public and private documents. And, realistically, you need to do both. The combination of biological proof and a paper trail will make definite proof that you are investigating the right ancestors.
Good luck with your genealogy research! Remember to get back to the Taylor surname project when you have updated your Taylor family tree.
Lalia
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